The Collaborative Historical African Rainfall Model (CHARM) covers the years between 19 by synthesizing interpolated gauge data 7, reanalysis precipitation fields 8, and a model of orographic rainfall 9. This analysis begins with a forty-one year (1961-2001) time series of gridded 10 day rainfall estimates. Zambia has historically had WRSI yield reductions of around 10% during El Niño years Malawi is not likely to be affected. Our results show that the crop water satisfaction outlook under conditions of weak El Niño is very similar to long term average conditions If a moderate-to-strong El Niño develops, however, history suggests that crop yield reductions of 20-40% for several regions of Zimbabwe, eastern Botswana, southern Mozambique and Lesotho are likely. This report quantifies the likely impacts a weak or moderate-to-strong El Niño event might have on southern Africa crop production. These forecasts generally call for a weak to moderate El Niño event 6 with sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern Pacific of between 0.5 and 1.0 degrees. Adding to present concerns are recent forecasts of El Niño, a condition historically linked to drought in Southern Africa. A recent position paper by FEWS/NET states that these three countries are under a real threat of famine 5. In Zambia 20% of the population (-2 million people) are in need of assistance with food access being a greater problem than food availability. In Malawi 3.2 million people (>25% of the population) will likely require food aid this year 4. Malnutrition there is on the rise, and the cost of living continues to soar 3. In Zimbabwe nearly 5.6 million people (41% of the national population) face inadequate food supplies 2. Several countries in Southern Africa face dramatic food insecurity crises.
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